Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.032547 0.037063 0.042004 0.047816 0.054470 0.061859 0.070692
2025-01-26 0.026112 0.032398 0.039910 0.049566 0.061681 0.076418 0.095766
2025-02-02 0.022728 0.029875 0.038938 0.051315 0.067845 0.089256 0.119248
2025-02-09 0.020353 0.028044 0.038281 0.052973 0.073635 0.101826 0.143506
2025-02-16 0.017906 0.025683 0.036473 0.052631 0.076383 0.110282 0.162801
2025-02-23 0.016143 0.023998 0.035309 0.052906 0.079828 0.119842 0.184524
2025-03-02 0.014437 0.022164 0.033669 0.052195 0.081584 0.126903 0.203053
2025-03-09 0.013424 0.021240 0.033248 0.053225 0.086015 0.138377 0.229657
2025-03-16 0.012208 0.019858 0.031950 0.052676 0.087782 0.145674 0.250087
2025-03-23 0.011606 0.019388 0.032037 0.054354 0.093329 0.159652 0.283320
2025-03-30 0.010434 0.017854 0.030217 0.052605 0.092797 0.163160 0.298379
2025-04-06 0.009583 0.016779 0.029060 0.051864 0.093910 0.169569 0.319289
2025-04-13 0.008599 0.015398 0.027277 0.049884 0.092671 0.171775 0.332901
2025-04-20 0.008299 0.015214 0.027597 0.051781 0.098831 0.188335 0.376309
2025-04-27 0.008011 0.015021 0.027874 0.053607 0.105017 0.205545 0.423010
2025-05-04 0.007732 0.014815 0.028100 0.055343 0.111183 0.223320 0.472965
2025-05-11 0.007220 0.014112 0.027311 0.054984 0.113064 0.232613 0.505946
2025-05-18 0.006829 0.013611 0.026868 0.055272 0.116293 0.244990 0.547094
2025-05-25 0.006362 0.012914 0.025972 0.054528 0.117243 0.252593 0.578358
2025-06-01 0.006119 0.012656 0.025940 0.055606 0.122242 0.269488 0.633092
2025-06-08 0.005736 0.012071 0.025181 0.055032 0.123501 0.278161 0.669330
2025-06-15 0.005594 0.011985 0.025465 0.056788 0.130225 0.299967 0.740217
2025-06-22 0.005154 0.011216 0.024215 0.054957 0.128423 0.301682 0.761053